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Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season
Pre-season 90Q.INVEST (!) Look at the cyclonephase map by GFS, and this wave tracking map. Some computer models predict or have predicted that it will strengthen into a TS in a few days! The sea surface temps in this area are way warmer than 2004 when Catarina formed, so definitely stay tuned. 2007Astro'sHurricane 04:03, March 5, 2010 (UTC) :I'm a bit late as it's all done with by now, but I thought it was worth mentioning that on NRL this is/was listed as 90'Q'. Also, Jeff Masters over on Wunderground is of the opinion that at its peak it was a tropical storm. --Patteroast 01:48, March 15, 2010 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Hey hey! First North Atlantic invest of the season! North of the Bahamas. --Patteroast 23:16, May 21, 2010 (UTC) :A special pre-season TWO was issued on this. NHC has it at low risk at this point. --Patteroast 02:06, May 26, 2010 (UTC) NOAA Predictions Out now. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml 14-23 named, 8-14 'canes, and 3-7 majors, ACE 155-270% of median. If those predictions are right, we're looking at a 2008-level season at best, and at very nearly 2005 all over again at worse. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:17, May 28, 2010 (UTC) June 91L.INVEST This is the remnant convection of Agatha, which killed 150+ people in Central America. Convection flared up yesterday, but dissipated and is flaring up again today. It currently appears to be moving east. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:48, June 1, 2010 (UTC) AoI: West of Windwards Low risk area from NHC. "SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH AND UPPER-LEVELWINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT." --Patteroast 21:05, June 9, 2010 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Even though it's WAY out there for June, NHC's got this at medium risk. "A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH CYCLONE FORMATIONS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE QUITE RARE THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS." --Patteroast 11:05, June 13, 2010 (UTC) :Risk at 50% up from 30% earlier. --Patteroast 20:20, June 13, 2010 (UTC) ::Up at 60% now. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:45, June 14, 2010 (UTC) :::Less organized today, back down to medium risk, 40%. --Patteroast 21:22, June 14, 2010 (UTC) ::::And even less now, down to 20%. Looks like it missed its chance to be Alex. --Patteroast 18:36, June 15, 2010 (UTC) :::::Poofed now.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 07:40, June 17, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Actually, still out there... pretty much no risk of development, but it is bringing some heavy rains. --Patteroast 13:05, June 19, 2010 (UTC) :::::::It had actually poofed off the NHC's map, but then it unpoofed itself back into a 10%--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:42, June 19, 2010 (UTC) 01L.ONE 93L.INVEST Hm, 92L appears to be gone and 93L has popped up in its place. Either way, still storms moving westward across the Caribbean with a low risk of development at this time. --Patteroast 16:43, June 21, 2010 (UTC) :This one looks very good and conditions seem somewhat favorable. SHIPS, LGEM and ICVN all make it a major hurricane in five days but the GFDL, HWRF and GFS don't do much with it. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:52, June 21, 2010 (UTC) ::So far I've been wondering if maybe we'll get a small tropical storm so we can start the season off and everything. But I just checked the latest GFDL run, which makes 93L a category 3 hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico, aimed at Louisiana. Now I'm starting to get worried. (Hopefully it doesn't end up anything like that!) --Patteroast 08:05, June 22, 2010 (UTC) :::I just noticed the same thing. The 12Z run makes it a 90kt Category 2 headed for southeast Louisiana by 12Z June 27, which is 53 years to the day after Hurricane Audrey wiped Cameron, LA off the face of the Earth. That said, it is extremely unusual for an Atlantic hurricane to get that strong this early in the season. Still, the GFDL forecast is a little spooky. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:59, June 22, 2010 (UTC) ::::I am not sure about what this storm will do, but major hurricanes are rare in June; the last one was Alma in 1966, 44 years ago. We might be overdue by now, and if this storm does end up the way these forecasts are saying, it could be a horiffic enviromental disaster. All of the oil from the oil spill in the Gulf could get caught up in the storm surge of a hurricane, which would not only destroy, but contaminate, all of the water and other resources there. 20:34, June 22, 2010 (UTC) :::::It does not look like much today, and the recon flight has been called off. NHC still thinks it has potential though, and it's still at medium risk. --Patteroast 21:37, June 23, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Hmm. Still not looking like much, still medium risk, and now a TCFA issued. Models going considerably less crazy about it now, at least. --Patteroast 16:25, June 24, 2010 (UTC) :::::::60% risk.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:00, June 25, 2010 (UTC) ::::::::All the way up to 70% now. --Patteroast 16:58, June 25, 2010 (UTC) :::::::::Make it 80%--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 19:07, June 25, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression One There we go! Atlantic season's really begun. Forecast to be Alex before hitting the Yucatan, will take a serious hit and will take a while to regenerate after that. --Patteroast 22:38, June 25, 2010 (UTC) :Beat me to it, a$$hole! ;P. "The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun." -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 22:40, June 25, 2010 (UTC) 94L.INVEST New area, low risk right now. Models mostly seem to see if curving up and near Bermuda. --Patteroast 16:58, June 25, 2010 (UTC)